Home | Message Board | Pick 'em Page | Picks & Results | Pt Standings | Wkly Composites | Official Rules | Awards | Record Archives | Handicapper Capsules |
Bookie Challenge WEEKLY REVIEW November 8, 2023 | Issue #10 | Week #9 |
Parts Unknown (DP--Disassociated Press): The start to this year's divisional races got off with a mind-boggling bang, but it was a kooky and an unconventional one that was unexpectedly fueled by a tremendously captivating outing from this year's Challenge field in which it rattled off one of the top best-bet performances in the history of the competition. The field entered this past weekend with an eight-week start to this season in which the overwhelming majority of its weekends have been littered with mostly miserable handicapping. In fact, the field headed into this past weekend with only one outing that ended with a winning best-bet record, which occurred back in week #5, but even in that outing the field still struggled and barely managed to eke out a combined 14-13-1 best-bet tally. The field also headed into this past weekend without producing a PERFECTA outing, of which the handicapping futility had the field chasing an all-time record for starting out a competition with the most consecutive weekends without a PERFECTA (the all-time record is 14 straight outings w/o a PF to start off a competition that was set by the field from Challenge year #3). This past weekend, however, that all changed, if only for one weekend, when out of the blue, the Challenge field erupted for a season-high 47 points that was spearheaded by three 6-point parlay hits, of which two ended up in PERFECTA weekends, and also a dazzling 22-5-0 best-bet tally that factored out to an otherwordly .815 winning percentage. On the whole, it was a combined handicapping performance that has been a long time coming for this year's roster of handicappers, and it was so spectacular of an outing that it enabled the field to metaphorically slap a retributive smackdown, or a stinging comeuppance for better words, upon the Vegas Crocodiles for having had their way with most of the Bookie Challenge handicappers for the better part of this season. All in all, however, it was a few outstanding handicapping outings this past weekend by several of the competition's handicappers that directly affected the start to this year's divisional races in ways never seen before in any of the previous starts to divisional races in the history of the Challenge competition. To start off with, it has been pointed out many times in previous weekly reviews that no yearly Bookie Challenge competitions are ever the same. They're all different, with each and every one taking on a unique life of its own. But this year's competition is such a different animal, and in such an unprecedented way, that its overall handicapping machinations have had a rare and early impact upon the onset of this year's divisional races. Specifically, after this past weekend's handicapping action went into the books, this year's Bookie Challenge competition is starting to shape up to be the most competitive handicapping contest in the history of the Bookie Challenge. Generally, as it concerns the starts of yearly divisional races, and because the number-one and number-two top seeds from a divisional seeding begin their respective divisional races with the largest leads in total points, it takes a good many weeks before their divisional leads are overtaken, that is, if they are overtaken at all. Case in point, in the history of the competition, only once before has an overall number-one top seed from a divisional seeding failed to win a divisional title (DIRTYBIRDS in Challenge yr #11). Conversely, because the number-three and number-four top seeds from a divisional seeding start their respective divisional races with significantly smaller divisional leads, it's not a big surprise that divisional lead changes occur a lot earlier in its divisional races than they do when compared to the lead changes that transpire within the top-two seeded divisions. Accordingly, because the lowest-seeded division from a divisional seeding starts off its divisional race with a good portion of its handicappers in a virtual total-points gridlock atop its divisional point standings, it's highly understandable to see why the only divisional lead changes to have taken place in all the previous Bookie Challenge competitions after just one weekend of a divisional race have occurred in the lowest-seeded divisions. For the record, as it pertains to those aforementioned divisional lead changes that took place after just one weekend to kick off divisional races, it might come as a surprise that those divisional lead changes have only happened TWICE before in the history of the competition. In Challenge year #4, in that year's lowest-seeded division, the Sneaky Pete division, divisional leader jcvike28 was surpassed by both moemonie and Bomber7 after the first weekend of that year's divisional races. Likewise, in Challenge year #10, in that year's lowest-seeded division, the Corozal division, the Biased Nihilist usurped Driveline for the Corozal divisional lead after the first weekend of that year's divisional races. But in a statistical anamoly that will surely amaze nearly every participant in the league, when taking into account the overall history of divisional lead changes that have taken place, it is hard to imagine that those lead changes do not happen as often as one might think. In all of the previous Bookie Challenge competitions, of all the divisional leaders who have started off all the previous yearly divisional races in the history of the competition, at least half or more of them have gone on to win respective divisional races in every prior competition. When applying the math, that factors out to a rate of at least 50 percent or higher that divisional leaders from every past divisional race have held on to win respective divisional championships. Even more astounding is that in two previous competitions, those of Challenge years' #4 and #10, all five divisional leaders to emerge from that year's divisional seeding all won divisional titles. As already mentioned in this weekly review, in Challenge year #4, jcvike28 had lost his divisional lead in the first weekend after that year's opening round of the divisional races. However, jcvike eventually retook the divisional lead weeks later in his divisional race and then held on to win that year's Sneaky Pete divisional title, which his comeback to win his division capped off the first time every divisional leader that started off a divisional race all won their respective divisional championships. The second time it happened (Challenge yr #10), meaning when all divisional leaders from a divisional seeding all won divisional titles, turned out to be more intriguing after every divisional leader to start off their respective divisional races from that season all went wire-to-wire to win their respective divisional championships. But, after this past weekend, as it pertained to that rock-steady statistical model which has best epitomized the propensity of past divisional leaders from past divisional seedings to capture divisional titles at a 50 percent clip or higher--well--that statistical model is about to get blown up to smithereens, or at least the possibility for the fireworks appears to be on the near-distant horizon. Morever, in what can be deemed as an emerging brain-teaser that arose in the wake of this past weekend's handicapping action, there now exists an oddball set of circumstances that can set in motion the distinct scenario in which, for the first time ever, none of the divisional leaders from a divisional seeding will win a divisional title, of which is an unprecedented foreboding this season that can become a reality just as sure as one of Nostradamus' omens from one of his quandrants have arguably come to fruititon. The impetus that has triggered the possibilty for such a fantastical situation to occur in this year's divisional races originated after Blitzkrieg, jcvike28, and Vikings17 each produced brilliant handicapping performances. Both Blitzkrieg and jcvike28 erupted to connect on the first PERFECTA outings of this year's competition, while rookie Vikings17 registered his first-ever 7-point outing of his Bookie Challenge career. Even more eye-popping as it concerns Vikings17's 6-point parlay hit from this past weekend is that it was his second-straight 6-point parlay winner, of which the successive parlay hits are a fascinating accomplishment for a rookie to pull off in his greenhorn debut. Also impressive were the PERFECTA performances from both Blitzkrieg and jcvike28, for their PERFECTA outings put to rest any chances of this year's Challenge field to break the all-time record for the most consecutive weeks to start off a competition without a PERFECTA outing. Amazingly, Blitzkrieg was able to collect a crucial week-won after he complemented his 8-point PERFECTA with a 1-point exact-score hit to finish his outing with nine total points. Blitzkrieg was able to compile his 9th point after he nailed down a 1-point exact-score hit by correctly predicting the Chargers would score 27 points against the Jets on this past Monday night (Chargers won 27-6). But the most important consequence to have manifested itself this past weekend after the combined performances by Blitzkrieg, jcvike28, and Vikings17, is the significant role those combined outings played when it came to converting this year's divisional races--TO MEAN EVERY DIVISIONAL RACE!--into free-for-all battles to win divisional championships. To be more specific, because Blitzkrieg's 9-point outing sliced Theopholis' previous 10-point divisional lead in the top-seeded Corozal division to a meager three points, and because jcvike's 8-point PERFECTA outing tied him in total points (21 pts) with catman23 for the overall lead of the second-seeded Hail Mary division, and because Vikings17's 7-point outing in the Run-&-Shoot division enabled him to climb over TCU and finish his outing in second place in the division's point standings and just two points away from DawgPound's divisional lead, the first round of this year's divisional races concluded with every divisional race being highly contested and with every respective divisional leader clinging on to slim divisional leads. Never before in the history of the Bookie Challenge's divisional races has a weekend of divisional races concluded in divisional-leading point differentials of three points, two points, one point, and a tie in total points, not ever has it happened and not at any point, to mean any weekend, of any previous divisional race. So, with all the above in mind, it can be clearly seen that with 10 more weekends still left to handicap in this year's regular season, this year's handicapping brawls to seize divisional titles, not to forget about the battle to caputure this year's regular-season championship, are all presently mired in a never-before-seen state of unpredictability that it will be anyone's guess as to which handicappers will still be standing in the eventual aftermath of the inevitable handicapping pandemonium that is sure to define the end of this year's divisional races. Other takeaways from this past weekend included some off-the-wall scoring totals by a few handicappers. The rare 9-point outing by Blitzkrieg was just one of a handful of quirky point totals that were registered this past weekend, of which the offbeat point totals came about in large part after five handicappers combined to correctly predict seven 1-point exact-score winners. Apart from Blitzkrieg's 9-point tally, the other crooked point totals from this past weekend included respective 3-point outings by moemonie, DawgPound, and the Hall of Fame City Kid. And in one last unusual scoring total that was tallied this past weekend, the Biased Nihilist scored four overall points for his outing after he connected on both of his best bets and also after he recorded 1-point exact-score hits in each of the two exact-score games from this past weekend. |
WEEKLY ODDS AND ENDS: THE HANDICAPPING HODGEPODGE |
|
CHALLENGE FIELD: WEEKLY COMBINED STATS AND HAPPENINGS | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
WHO'S HOT AND WHO'S NOT |
WHO'S HOT: Vikings17 If any veteran from the Bookie Challenge field has not noticed rookie Vikings17's greenhorn debut after the first-nine weeks of this season, or harbors the wrong belief that the handicapping newbie won't be a major factor in the hunt for this year's overall Bookie Challenge championship, that veteran had better take another look, a much closer look for that matter. After a lackluster start through the first-seven weeks of his first-ever Bookie Challenge competition, the upstart rookie over the last two weeks has slapped his handicapping season into a whole different gear, and one that has revved up his hopes to win the Run-&-Shoot divisional crown. Two weeks ago, in week #8, the Purple People Eater made his Bookie Challenge bones after he connected on his first-ever 6-point parlay hit. Then, on this past weekend, he put himself on the Bookie Challenge map after he produced a spectacular encore to his previous weekend, of which the encore came in the form of a second-consecutive parlay winner. Apart from catman23, the up-and-coming rookie became the second handicapper this season to produce back-to-back 6-point parlay hits. What's more, after registering his two consecutive parlay hits, the Purple People Eater became only the third rookie in the history of the competition to unleash back-to-back 6-point parlay hits in his inaugural year of handicapping the BC competition, with the two other rookies to have achieved the remarkable rookie feat being PinstripesPoppa (Challenge yr #7) and Blitzkrieg (Challenge yr #6). But there's more. After recording two-consecutive parlay hits, Vikings17 has positioned himself to achieve a couple of extraordinary handicapping feats in the upcoming weekend. First, he can enter himself into the Bookie Challenge's all-time record books if this upcoming weekend he pounds out a third-consecutive 6-point parlay winner, of which the possible parlay hit will make him the first rookie in the history of the Bookie Challenge to connect on three-straight 6-point parlay winners. Second, because the Purple People Eater has two-straight 6-point parlay hits heading into this weekend, a third-straight parlay hit by Vkings17 will not only set that aforementioned all-time rookie record but also it would enable him to simultaneously match Theopholis' all-time record for knocking down three-straight 6-point parlay hits. But of more importance, what a third-straight 6-point parlay hit will do for Vikings17 in the upcoming weekend is that it will erase DawgPound's two-point divisional lead in the Run-&-Shoot division, and as a result, he can then afterward claim his first-ever divisional lead, that is, he'll surpass DawgPound but only if the Dawg doesn't match a possible 6-point parlay hit by the Purple People Eater. Regardless, whether or not Vikings17 produces an historic outing in the upcoming weekend, he will still have a golden opportunity to tie DawgPound in total points for the Run-&-Shoot divisional lead through best bets alone, but to pull it off he'll need for DawgPound to goose egg his outing and Vikings17 will have to win both of his best bets. But in that aforementioned best-bet scenario, even if Vikings17 does happen to tie DawgPound in total points for the divisional lead, he could possibly lose the league's second tiebreaker to DawgPound because of less parlay wins within his combined parlay combinations (heading into the upcoming weekend, DawgPound leads Vikings17 by one more parlay win in his combined parlay combos on the season--15 wins vs 14 wins). Come what may, it has to be a given that the suddenly surging greenhorn has to be tickled to death at being in the thick of his first-ever divisional race and is in great shape to create a chaotic upheaval of this year's Run-&-Shoot divisional race. And by all appearances, the league's HOTTEST HANDICAPPER seems highly capable of upsetting the division's apple cart. |
WHO'S NOT: TCU What the hell is going on with Too Tall Tommy?! After having his worst-ever Bookie Challenge season in last year's competition, TCU appeared to be back in the saddle again after the first-five weeks of this year's competition. After week #5, he owned the number-three top seed in the point standings, sported the league's top best-bet record after he handicapped his way to an intoxicating 8-2-0 best-bet tally, which was good for a fabulous .800 winning percentage, not to mention that he also snapped his parlay drought of 23 weeks in a row after he landed a 7-point outing back in week #2 of this season. Additionally, over the span of those first-five weeks, Too Tall Tommy had not registered a scoreless outing. But his bid to win this year's Comeback-Handicapper-of-the-Year award got shot all to hell during the four ensuing weekends that followed week #5, or to put it differently--his fall from grace has been going on over the last-four weekends, to include this past weekend. In that four-week stretch, Too Tall Tommy plopped a goose egg in week #6, then laid a golden goose egg in week #8, and after scraping out one best-bet winner in week #8, TCU's handicapping relapse went completely bonkers after he placed a best bet for this past Thursday night's game, of which he lost, and then he disappeared for the rest of the weekend. As a consequence for going AWOL after this past Thursday night, TCU was credited with a goose egg outing, which meant that he has only registered one point over the span of his last-four outings. In an odd sort of way, the reversal of fortunes that have occurred in Too Tall Tommy's handicapping season this year can easily remind one of an overly eccentric fictional cowboy from the anthology film named The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, in which the fictional character also has a reversal of fortunes in his life, going from a top-notch gunslinger who ultimately meets his match and is killed in a shooting duel. On the one hand, Too Tall Tommy could meet the same fate if he doesn't get back on his horse and start reeling off some good handicapping weekends. And yet, on the other hand, despite Too Tall Tommy's recent handicapping slump, he's still very much in the mix to vie for this year's Run-&-Shoot divisional title, as he is presently in third place in the division and just six points away from the divisional lead. So before anyone gets to thinking that Too Tall Tommy is heading for a final resting place at a proverbial "Boot Hill", don't count him out just yet because there's plenty of handicapping left to be had in the remainder of this year's regular season. |
POINT STANDINGS (Thru week #9) | ||||||||||||||
COROZAL DIVISION | ||||||||||||||
Total Pts | Participant | Best Bet Record | Win % | Weeks Won | Exact Scores 5pt--------2pt- -------1pt |
Propositional Pts | 3pt Parlays | 6pt Parlays | Perfectas | Goose Eggs | Golden Goose-Eggs | Wins in Parlays | ||
23 pts | Theopholis | 10-7-0 | .588 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
20 pts | Blitzkrieg | 12-5-1 | .688 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
9 pts | B.Nihilist | 6-11-1 | .353 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
HAIL MARY DIVISION | ||||||||||||||
Total Pts | Participant | Best Bet Record | Win % | Weeks Won | Exact Scores 5pt--------2pt- -------1pt |
Propositional Pts | 3pt Parlays | 6pt Parlays | Perfectas | Goose Eggs | Golden Goose-Eggs | Wins in Parlays | ||
21 pts | catman23 | 8-10-0 | .444 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 |
21 pts | jcvike28 | 8-10-0 | .444 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 |
7 pts | Driveline | 7-11-0 | .389 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
RUN-&-SHOOT DIVISION | ||||||||||||||
Total Pts | Participant | Best Bet Record | Win % | Weeks Won | Exact Scores 5pt--------2pt- -------1pt |
Propositional Pts | 3pt Parlays | 6pt Parlays | Perfectas | Goose Eggs | Golden Goose-Eggs | Wins in Parlays | ||
22 pts | DawgPound | 9-9-0 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
20 pts | Vikings17 | 7-10-1 | .412 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 |
16 pts | TCU | 9-8-0 | .529 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
12 pts | moemonie | 8-9-1 | .471 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 |
RED ZONE DIVISION | ||||||||||||||
Total Pts | Participant | Best Bet Record | Win % | Weeks Won | Exact Scores 5pt--------2pt- -------1pt |
Propositional Pts | 3pt Parlays | 6pt Parlays | Perfectas | Goose Eggs | Golden Goose-Eggs | Wins in Parlays | ||
21 pts | DIRTYBIRDS | 8-7-1 | .533 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
20 pts | 7mick7 | 8-8-2 | .500 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
17 pts | dbucc | 9-6-1 | .600 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
13 pts | HOF City Kid | 5-12-1 | .294 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
Statistics in BOLD denotes participant leads league in statistical category. | ||||||||||||||
All membership fees have been received. Total Latinum jackpot: $560. Splits of Latinum jackpot for 13th annual Bookie Challenge competition: 1st place $420 (BC Champion); 2nd place $100 (Runner up to BC Champion), 3rd place $40 (Regular Season Champion) |
CONSENSUS PICK (Week #9) | |
CONSENSUS: Cleveland (-8½/-9)-WON | WK#9: 1-0-0 Win% 1.000 (YTD Thru Wk #9: 5-7-0 Win% .417) |
INDIVIDUAL PICKS (Week #9) (Note: Participants are listed in order in which they posted their picks. *Asterisk in WIP column denotes a 3-pt parlay attempt) |
||||||||||||||||||
Participant | Best Bets | Parlay | Exact Scores | Propositional Picks | Results >>>>> | Total Pts | W-L-T | Week Won | Exact-Scores 5pt-- --2pt----1pt |
Propositional Pts | 3pt parlay | 6pt parlay | Perfecta | Goose Egg | Golden Goose-Egg | Wins in Parlay | ||
TCU | Ten/Pit-O36½-L bb |
par par par |
Pit 24-21 xs |
N/A | >>>>> | 0 pts | 0-1-0 | GE | n/a | |||||||||
moemonie | Pitts-2½-W Ten/Pit-U36½-W |
Cle-9-W Cin-2-W NO-9-L |
Pit 20-13--W NYJ 23-20 |
N/A | >>>>> | 3 pts | 2-0-0 | 1pt | PP-1pt | 2/3 | ||||||||
DawgPound | Ten/Pit-U36½-W KC-1½-W |
NO-9-L Cle-9-W Wash+3-W |
Ten 23-20-W LAC 21-20 |
N/A | >>>>> | 3 pts | 2-0-0 | 1pt | PP-1pt | 2/3 | ||||||||
Theopholis | Cle-8½-W NO-8½-L |
Cin-2-W LAR+3-L Minn+3-W |
Ten 24-20--W LAC 24-20 |
N/A | >>>>> | 2 pts | 1-1-0 | 1pt | PP-1pt | 2/3 | ||||||||
dbucc | Dal/Phi-O46½-W Cin-1½-W |
Atl-3-L TB+3-W NE-3-L |
Pit 21-18 LAC 24-20 |
N/A | >>>>> | 2 pts | 2-0-0 | 1/3 | ||||||||||
Vikings17 | Pitts-2½-W Ten/Pit-O36½-L |
Cle-9-W Cin-2-W Dal/Phi-O47-W |
Pit 23-17 xs |
N/A | >>>>> | 7 pts | 1-1-0 | 6pt | W-3/3 | |||||||||
B.Nihilist | KC-1½-W Balt-5½-W |
Cle-9-W NYG+2-L Dall+3-L |
Pit 20-17--W LAC 27-17--W |
N/A | >>>>> | 4 pts | 2-0-0 | 2(1pt) | PP-2pt | 1/3 | ||||||||
7mick7 | Min/Atl-O37½-W Dal/Phi-O46½-W |
Atl-3-L Balt-6-W Hou-3-L |
Ten 20-17 LAC 24-17 |
N/A | >>>>> | 2 pts | 2-0-0 | 1/3 | ||||||||||
Blitzkrieg | LAC-3½-W LV-1½-W |
Balt-6-W Cin-2-W Cle-9-W |
Pit 21-20 LAC 27-20--W |
N/A | >>>>> | 9 pts | 2-0-0 | WW | 1pt | PP-1pt | 6pt | PF | W-3/3 | |||||
catman23 | TB+3-W Car+2½-L |
Dall+3-L KC-2-W Cin-2-W |
xs NYJ 20-10 |
N/A | >>>>> | 1 pts | 1-1-0 | 2/3 | ||||||||||
jcvike28 | Balt-5½-W Ind-2½-W |
KC-2-W Cle-9-W Cin-2-W |
xs LAC 20-17 |
N/A | >>>>> | 8 pts | 2-0-0 | 6pt | PF | W-3/3 | ||||||||
Driveline | KC-1½-W Atl-3½-L |
Phil-3-W NYG+2-L Sea+6-L |
xs LAC 23-20 |
N/A | >>>>> | 1 pts | 1-1-0 | 1/3 | ||||||||||
DIRTYBIRDS | Balt-5½-W TB+3-W |
Atl-3-L Cle-9-W Buff+2-L |
xs LAC 28-17 |
N/A | >>>>> | 2 pts | 2-0-0 | 1/3 | ||||||||||
HOF City Kid | Ind-2½-W Minn+3½-W |
Ind-3-W Minn+3-W LAR+3-L |
xs LAC 27-17--W |
N/A | >>>>> | 3 pts | 2-0-0 | 1pt | PP-1pt | 2/3* |
FINALS | PITTS 20 TENN 16 |
KC 21 MIA 14 |
MINN 31 ATL 28 |
BALT 37 SEA 3 |
CLE 27 ARI 0 |
GB 20 LAR 3 |
HOU 39 TB 37 |
WASH 20 NE 17 |
NO 24 CHI 17 |
IND 27 CAR 13 |
LV 30 NYG 6 |
PHIL 28 DALL 23 |
CIN 24 BUFF 18 |
LAC 27 NYJ 6 |
PREVIOUS REVIEWS | Preseason Special | Wk #1 | Wk #2 | Wk #3 | Wk #4 | Wk #5 | Wk #6 | Wk #7 | Wk #8 |