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Bookie Challenge
WEEKLY REVIEW

October 11, 2024 | Issue #5 | Week #5

Parts Unknown (DP--Disassociated Press): The 5th weekend of this year's Bookie Challenge competition saw two savvy veterans in the Biased Nihilist and Blitzkrieg both overtake rookie upstart Jets69 for the overall technical lead of the point standings. Albeit, all three handicappers, the Nihilist, Blitzkrieg, and Jets69 ended the past weekend in a deadlock of 11 points apiece. But both the Nihilist and Blitzkrieg were able to match Jets69's 11 total points on the season after this past weekend, then surpassed Jets69 by virtue of tiebreakers, which were more best-bet wins on the season (the Nihilist and Blitzkrieg has 5 best-bet winners each vs Jets69's 3 best-bet winners). In turn, the Nihilist edged out his former brother-in-law Blitzkrieg after the league's second regular-season tiebreaker was factored into their 11-point deadlock, of which the Nihilist won because of more parlay wins in his combined parlay combinations so far this season (the Nihilist 9 parlay wins vs Blitzkrieg's 7 parlay wins). Interestingly, "Broadway Al" finished the week with a league-leading 10 parlay wins within his combined parlay combinations, but unfortunately his weak best-bet record of 3-7-0 (win% .300) couldn't get him past the league's first tiebreaker (most best-bet wins).

Incredibly, "Broadway Al" lost both of his best bets for the second straight weekend, but needed only one more parlay win in his parlay combination this past weekend to hit his 6-point parlay combo for a second-straight 6-point outing, not to forget he would have maintained his overall lead in the point standings over both the Nihilist and Blitzkrieg. Instead however "Joe Willie" did his best audition of a Mark Sanchez "butt-fumble" and ended the past weekend with his first-ever goose egg outing, or scoreless weekend. The weekend ended with the Nihilist holding the number-one top seed in the standings, then was followed by Blitzkrieg (#2 seed), Jets69 (#3 seed), and Vikings17 (#4 seed), who was last year's Rookie-of-the-Year, but who has gotten off to a ho-hum start in this year's competition. In fact, Vikings17 should be counting his blessing for hitting an opening-day 5-point exact-score hit in this year's contest, otherwise he would be presently residing in the lowest tier of the standings with four overall points on the season instead of owning one of the top-four seeds after luckily collecting a total of nine overall points so far this season.

The race to win this year's number-one top seed at this year's divisional seeding (conclusion of week #8), is as tight as tight can be. Underneath the fourth seed in the standings are jcvike28 (5th place with 8 pts), a reinvented Hall-of-Fame City Kid (6th place with 7 pts), and this year's defending champion 7mick7 (7th place with 7pts). All three of the aforementioned handicappers--jcvike28, HOF City kid, and 7mick7--with a little bit of luck, meaning if the present front-runners don't connect on respective 6-point parlay hits, jcvike, the City Kid, and 7mick7 could conceivably end up as the overall number-one seed through best-bet rallies. But more than likely, the Nihilist and/or Blitzkrieg have the handicapping mettle to hang in there and capture a number-one seed for the first time ever. However, before anyone forgets that this is the Bookie Challenge competition, and that anything and everything can possibly happen in a three-week period of handicapping the competition. With that being pointed out, every handicapper with the exception of rookie CAP_ATTACK can still luck into the number-one overall top seed if they can rally for a couple of 6-point parlay hits over the span of the upcoming three weeks. Heck, really and truly, even CAP_ATTACK can at least win one of the four top seeds if he gets on a parlay-hitting streak.

But realistically, this year's hunt for the number-one top seed is shaping up to be a tightly contested handicapping battle between the Biased Nihilist and Blitzkrieg, especially if either handicapper can connect on a second 6-point parlay winner. Let's not forget that this season has been tough to connect on parlay winners, as only Jets69, a rookie in this year's contest, has the only other 6-point parlay hit on the year. But for right now, the "HOTTEST HANDICAPPER" in the league is the Biased Nihilist. Nobody in the competition has scored more points over the span of the last three weekends than the self-proclaimed Greatest Handicapper of All Time, who has racked up 10 total points over the stretch of the last-three weeks.


WEEKLY ODDS AND ENDS: THE HANDICAPPING HODGEPODGE

  • CLASH FOR THIS YEAR'S ROOKIE-OF-THE-YEAR AWARD STILL UP IN THE AIR AFTER FIRST-FIVE WEEKENDS: From the surface of this year's race to be the Rookie-of-the-Year, it appears that Jets69 (aka Joe Willie and aka Broadway Al) has the huge edge over the league's other four rookies Kr@tos, Realtalkrob, Nelbarada, and CAP_ATTACK, and it's because Broadway Al has so far accumulated the most points for this year's crop of greenhorns, of which is 11 total points. Within that point total he also has two one-point exact-score hits, which is a small point total that is also better than the other rookies in this year's competition. The big 6-point parlay hit that Jets69 scored in week #4 has been the big difference maker when comparing him to the other four rookies. But when taking a closer look at all of this year's rookie stats and one can easily see that Jets69 doesn't exactly have all of the rookie market cornered, so to speak. If not for the 6-point parlay hit in week #4, Jets69 would be down in the lower tier of the point standings with a present best-bet record of 3-7-0 (win% .300), and just above last-place CAP_ATTACK, who owns the worst best-bet record in the league (1-7-1/win% .167). Moreover, Kr@tos, with a present best-bet record of 6-4-0 (win% .600), and Realtalkrob, with a present best-bet record of 5-5-0 (win% .500), both have better best-bet marks than does Jets69. Actually, even Nelbarada, who made a Cardinal Sin last week and didn't post any weekly selections, presently has a better winning percentage of his best bets than does Broadway Al (Nel .375 win% vs Jets69's .300 win%). All in all, with the exception of rookie CAP_ATTACK, who clearly has some ground to make up, this year's rookie race promises to be a good one, maybe not as historic as was Vikings17's rookie run in last year's competition when he became the 1st rookie in the history of the Bookie Challenge to win a regular-season championship--but this year's greenhorn race is still going to be an entertaining one nonetheless.

  • WEEKLY TICKER ..................I guess the old saying is full of truth--"the apple doesn't fall far away from the tree"--meaning that jcvike28, like his father the Nihilist, is also having a good beginning to this season. In fact, he is off to a scorching-hot best-bet start to this season after piecing together the competition's top best-bet record of 8-2-0, which factors out to an otherworldly 80 percent winning percentage of his best bets. Although jcvike has a long, long, long way to go before he becomes a true contender for this year's Swami award (handicapper with top best-bet record for an entire season), he knows he's only got a slim lead over the Hall-of-Fame City Kid for the special year-end honor (The City Kid presently has a 7-3-0 best-bet mark for a great 70% winning percentage)......................ALMOST PROPHETIC: Before the start of week #5, last year's defending champion, 7mick7, after looking at the weekly pointspreads for week #5 predicted the following: "After looking at this weeks' spreads, I would be shocked if the Challenge didn't have a collective breakout week." And hell, the Challenge field came pretty damn close to having that 6-point parlay barrage, but seven overall handicappers missed on parlay winners after each handicapper missed just one more parlay winner within their collective parlay combinations, to include two near misses of PERFECTA outings by Blitzkrieg and, yep, the Irish Hustler (7mick7)................


CHALLENGE FIELD: WEEKLY COMBINED STATS AND HAPPENINGS
WEEKLY RESULTS (Thru Week #5)
Week/YTD Best Bet Record Win % Total Pts Exact-Scores

5pt-------2pt---------1pt
Propositional Pts 3pt Parlays 6pt Parlays Perfectas Goose Eggs Golden Goose Eggs Wins Within Parlay Consensus Picks
Week #5 16-12-0 .571 16 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 0 21 consensus 1-1-0
Win% .500
YTD 75-77-1 .493 97 1 0 x9--1pt 14 0 3 0 16 2 104 consensus 3-4-0
Win% .429
Single-Season
Records
504-414-33
(Yr#5)
.549 (Yr#5) 1087 (Yr#8) 4
(Yrs #8
& #6)
N/A 3
(Yr#12)
181
(Yr#8)
9
(Yr#7)
56 (Yr#8) 19
(Yr#8)
92 (Yr#8) 23 (Yr#4) 631 (Yr#8) 16-8-2
W%.667 (Yr#4)

  • CHALLENGE FIELD STRUGGLES TO SAVE FACE IN SO FAR UNSTEADY HANDICAPPING SEASON: There's no use in trying to make this year's Challenge field more special than it really is, and that's because this year's field hasn't been anything to write home about. A barely winning best-bet record in this year's opening week has been followed by two consecutive losing best-bet outings, but then the field has managed to rebound and barely add two winning best-bet weekends in the wake of the previous two losing weekends. Regardless, the overall best-bet numbers shows a field that has yet to make the Crocodiles in Vegas cry, as they have a cumulative best-bet record on the season of 75-77-1 (.493 win%), of which is nothing special when compared to previous Challenge fields. Unfortunately, despite starting the 14th annual competition with an increase membership of 16 overall handicappers, this year's field has only recorded three total 6-point parlay winners after five weeks of handicapping this year's competition. The three parlay hits through the first-five weekends have tied the all-time record for the worst amounts of parlay hits to start off a season, of which in Challenge year #3 was the last time a Challenge field opened up with the smallest amount of parlay hits (3 in all). Additionally, the 97 total points this year's field has accrued so far through the first five weeks of this year's competition is the lowest amount of points registered to open up a 5-week stretch to start off a competition since Challenge year #2 (90 pts) and year #3 (93 pts).


WHO'S HOT AND WHO'S NOT
WHO'S HOT: Biased Nihilist

It wouldn't matter if the Nihilist didn't get off to a good start to a Bookie Challenge competition. Case in point, he has had two of the most horrific starts to two separate seasons and still won divisional titles and almost two Bookie Challenge championships in each of those respective seasons. But the Bookie Challenge handicappers, or at least the veterans who've competed for years and years in the handicapping campaigns, know that the league is in big trouble when the Nihilist gets off to good starts to competitions. Granted, the Nihilist is technically tied with 11 points apiece with a veteran handicapper in Blitzkrieg and an upstart rookie in Jets69 for the top of the Bookie Challenge leader board, but he's already working those tiebreaker edges so he can pull away to win his first number-one overall top seed at this year's divisional seeding, which will give him the opportunity to recoup his membership fee and play out the regular season with the competition's "house money". If "El Vadass" pulls it off, it will mark the first time he'll win an overall number-one seed at a divisional seeding.

WHO'S NOT: Nelbarada

It's the worst mistake any rookie can ever make, but even veterans of the Challenge know that missing a week of handicapping the competition can only guarantee zero points. But for a rookie to miss a week could be the death knell to his greenhorn season if he makes a habit of being incognito. In Nelbrada's case, his one-week disappearance has him challenging CAP_ATTACK for dead-last place of the point standings (Nel 4pts vs CAP 2pts). But if anything, Nelbrada found out the hard way what automatically comes when not posting a set of weekly picks, as in it automatically guarantees that he'll make it to this segment of the weekly review. And that's regardless if someone else has a statistically horrible weekend.


POINT STANDINGS (Thru Week #5)
Total Pts Participant Best Bet Record Win % Weeks Won Exact Scores Propositional Pts 3pt Parlays 6pt Parlays Perfectas Goose Eggs Golden Goose-Eggs Wins in Parlays
11 Pts B.Nihilist* 5-5-0 .500 1 5pts-0 2pts-0 1pt-0 0 0 1 0 1 0 9
11 Pts Blitzkrieg 5-5-0 .500 0 5pts-0 2pts-0 1pt-0 0 0 1 0 0 1 7
11 Pts Jets69* 3-7-0 .300 1 5pts-0 2pts-0 1pt(x2) 2 0 1 0 1 0 10
9 Pts Vikings17* 4-6-0 .400 1 5pts(x1) 2pt-0 1pt-0 5 0 0 0 2 0 5
8 Pts jcvike28 8-2-0 .800 0 5pts-0 2pts-0 1pt-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7
7 Pts HOF City Kid 7-3-0 .700 0 5pts-0 2pts-0 1pt-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
7 Pts 7mick7* 6-4-0 .600 0 5pts-0 2pts-0 1pt(x1) 1 0 0 0 0 1 4
6 Pts Kr@tos* 6-4-0 .600 0 5pts-0 2pts-0 1pt-0 0 0 0 0 1 0 6
6 Pts moemonie 5-4-0 .555 0 5pts-0 2pts-0 1pt-(x1) 1 0 0 0 1 0 9
6 Pts Driveline* 5-3-0 .625 0 5pts-0 2pts-0 1pt(x1) 1 0 0 0 1 0 4
5 Pts TCU* 5-5-0 .500 0 5pts-0 2pts-0 1pt-0 0 0 0 0 1 0 7
5 Pts Realtalkrob 5-5-0 .500 0 5pts-0 2pts-0 1pt-0 0 0 0 0 2 0 6
5 Pts dbucc* 4-6-0 .400 0 5pts-0 2pts-0 1pt(x1) 1 0 0 0 0 0 8
5 Pts DawgPound 4-5-0 .444 0 5pts-0 2pts-0 1pt(x1) 1 0 0 0 2 0 7
4 Pts Nelbarada* 3-5-0 .375 0 5pts-0 2pts-0 1pt(x1) 1 0 0 0 1 0 5
2 Pts CAP_ATTACK* 1-7-1 .125 0 5pts-0 2pts-0 1pt-(x1) 1 0 0 0 3 0 7
Statistics in BOLD denotes participant leads league in statistical category.
*Asterisk next to participant's name denotes participant's Latinum has been received. Total projected jackpot: $720 (Current jackpot: $450). Projected split of jackpot: 1st place $450 (BC Champion); 2nd place $120 (Runner up to BC Champion), 3rd place $100 (Regular Season Champion), and 4th place prize $50 (Top seed from divisional seeding).

INDIVIDUAL PICKS (Week #5)
(Note: Participants are listed in order in which they posted their picks)
Participant Best Bets Parlay Exact Scores Propositional Picks Results >>>>> Total Pts W-L-T Week Won Exact-Scores

5pt------2pt------1pt
Propositional Pts 3pt parlay 6pt parlay Perfecta Goose Egg Golden Goose-Egg Wins in Parlay
Blitzkrieg Balt-2½-W
Den-3-W
Hou+1-W
Wash-3-W
NE-1-L
Atl 24-23

KC 27-24
N/A >>>>> 2 pts 2-0-0 2/3
dbucc TB+1½-L
Minn-2½-W
Wash-3-W
Sea-7-L
GB-3-W
TB 24-20

NO 24-20
N/A >>>>> 1 pts 1-1-0 2/3
CAP_ATTACK SF-7-L
Sea-6½-L
Car+4-L
Den-3-W
LAR+3-L
TB 35-29

xs
N/A >>>>> 0 pts 0-2-0 GE 1/3
HOF City Kid Balt-2½-W
Cle+3-L
Jax-3-L
Hou+1-W
NO+6-L
TB 23-16

NO 27-20
N/A >>>>> 1 pts 1-1-0 1/3
B.Nihilist Minn-2½-W
Balt-2½-W
Buff-1-L
Jax-3-L
Dall+3-W
TB 27-17

KC 27-24
N/A >>>>> 2 pts 2-0-0 1/3
Vikings17 TB/ATL-O44-W
Sea-6½-L
Buf/Hou-O48-L
GB-3-W
NO+6-L
TB 27-24

KC 23-20
N/A >>>>> 1 pts 1-1-0 1/3
Kr@tos TB/ATL-O44-W
Minn-2½-W
Sea-7-L
GB-3-W
NYJ/Min-O41-L
TB 28-24

NO 27-17
N/A >>>>> 2 pts 2-0-0 1/3
Jets69 Sea-6½-L
Pitts-2½-L
SF-7-L
Chi-4-W
Wash-3-W
TB 24-21

NO 24-21
N/A >>>>> 0 pts 0-2-0 GE 2/3
TCU Minn-2½-W
Balt-2½-W
Buf/hou-O48-L
Mia/NE-U37-W
LV/Den-U36-L
TB 31-28

NO 24-21
N/A >>>>> 2 pts 2-0-0 1/3
7mick7 Balt-2½-W
Wash-3-W
Chi-4-W
Jax-3-L
GB-3-W
TB 27-20

KC 31-23
N/A >>>>> 2 pts 2-0-0 2/3
Realtalkrob Sea-6½-L
SF-7-L
Wash-3-W
Balt-3-L
Hou+1-W
xs

KC 24-17
N/A >>>>> 0 pts 0-2-0 GE 2/3
jcvike28 Minn-2½-W
Balt-2½-W
Hou+1-W
SF-7-L
NO+6-L
xs

NO 24-20
N/A >>>>> 2 pts 2-0-0 1/3
DawgPound Cle+3-L
Balt-2½-W
Dall+3-w
SF-7-L
Mia+1-W
xs

NO 24-23
N/A >>>>> 1 pts 1-1-0 2/3
moemonie Car+4-L
NYJ/Min-O40½-L
NE-1-L
NYG+7-W
Wash-3-W
xs

KC 27-20
N/A >>>>> 0 pts 0-2-0 WW GE 2/3
Nelbarada No Picks Posted
Driveline No more Picks Posted After TNF Exact Score (Atl 24-20)

FINALS ATL 36
TB 30
MINN 23
NYJ 17
CHI 36
CAR 10
BALT 41
CIN 38
HOU 23
BUFF 20
JAX 37
IND 34
MIA 15
NE 10
WASH 34
CLE 13
DEN 34
LV 18
ARI 24
SF 23
GB 24
LAR 19
NYG 29
SEA 20
DALL 20
PITTS 17
KC 26
NO 13

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