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Bookie Challenge WEEKLY REVIEW October 25, 2023 | Issue #8 | Week #7 |
SCARFACE CATCHES THE TOMCAT FROM HANDICAPPING ALLEY! THEO PUTS "FRANKENSTEIN FIX" ON CATMAN TO CORRAL OVERALL LEAD OF CHALLENGE COMPETITION |
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Parts Unknown (DP--Disassociated Press): The seventh weekend of the 13th annual Bookie Challenge competition was supposed to be a critically important weekend in which nearly every handicapper from the Challenge field needed to step up in some form or fashion and pounce out a highly pivotal outing to enhance his respective positioning within the point standings so as to increase his odds of securing one of the four top seeds ahead of this year's divisional seeding. But instead, the Vegas Crocodiles had their way with a plethora of unsuspecting Joe-Public handicappers, to include the vast majority of the Bookie Challenge's handicappers, and they ran roughshod over them after coaxing them to select fradulent favorites and unavailing underdogs. This past Sunday, the NFL celebrated its tight ends in what has recently been coined over the last several years as "National Tight Ends Day". In like manner, this past Sunday, the Bookie Challenge competition also celebrated its handicappers, and it was coined as "The Challenge Handicappers' Fuck-Up Day". As a whole, the Bookie Challenge field was so bamboozled by the Vegas Crocodile's pointspreads this past weekend that it had its most pitiful outing in recent memory, especially when it came to scrounging out parlay wins within its combined parlay combinations. The field just simply went belly up this past weekend, that is, with the exception of two handicappers, Theopholis and jcvike28, both of whom each won their two respective best bets. But it was Theopholis, aka Scarface, whose name was featured in the Bookie Challenges' marquee lights this past weekend, and for good reason. Theo continued his meteoric rise of late to the top of the point standings after he pressed on to maintain his hot handicapping over the course of his last-four outings. Because of his relentlessly savvy handicapping over the last several weeks, to include this past weekend, Theopholis was able to take the overall lead of the Bookie Challenge competition after he connected on both of his best bets this past weekend and catman23 goose egged his outing. Ultimately, the weekend ended with Theopholis dramatically taking a one-point lead over catman23 by a final tally of 20 points vs 19 points. Don't look now, but Theo will head into this year's divisional seeding as the solid odds-on favorite to win the number-one overall top seed at this year's divisional seeding. Of course, with 20 points tallied on the season, Theo presently has just a one-point lead over second-place catman23 (19 pts), a two-point lead over third-place DIRTYBIRDS (18 pts), and a three-point lead over fourth-place DawgPound (17 pts). However, barring a 6-point parlay hit this upcoming weekend by any of those three handicappers who presently trail Theo in the point standings, Scarface (aka Theo) controls his own destiny because he holds a major tiebreaker advantage over all three of his pursuers, of which is the league's number-one regular-season tiebreaker, most best bet wins. As it stands right now, heading into this weekend, Theo has a best-bet record of 8-6-0, and he basically just needs to connect on one best-bet winner this upcoming weekend to lock up an overall number-one top seed. Again, that is contingent on none of his closest pursuers nailing down any 6-point parlay hits, of which also entails fifth-place TCU, who currently has 15 points accrued on the seaqson, not pounding out a suspenseful parlay winner either. But, to reiterate, if Theo knocks down just one best-bet winner this upcoming weekend, and if catman, DIRTYBIRDS, DawgPound, and TCU all fail to connect on their respective 6-point parlay combos, then there is no possible scenario in which Theo can lose the overall number-one seed solely through best bets alone. Conversely, however, if Theopholis squanders his golden opportunity and happens to lose both of his best bets this upcoming weekend, then catman is the only participant who can rain on Theo's parade by nailing down both of his best bets and winning the overall number-one top seed outright by virtue of more total points. Of course, it has to be repeated again that any of the aforementioned best-bet scenarios will only play out if all of the present front-runners in contention to win the overall number-one top seed all fail to connect on their respective 6-point parlay combos. In an interesting aside, if Theo prevails and wins the overall number-one top seed or if DIRTYBIRDS miraculously connects on a third 6-point paraly hit this season, either handicapper can become only the third participant in the history of the competition to win an overall number-one top seed for the second time at divisional seed, with the other two participants having accomplished the impressive feat being moemonie and a now defunct CarolinaNYD. In the case of CarolinaNYD, he won his two number-one top seeds in back-to-back seasons (Challenge yrs' #6 and #7). As already known, this past weekend, catman23 finally saw his run to become the first handicapper in the history of the competition to go wire-to-wire atop the Challenge point standings and win an overall number-one top seed at a divisional seeding go by the wayside after he goose egged his outing this past weekend. But that's not to say that everybody else in the competiton didn't see his demise coming before his year-long consecutive lead of the point standings came to a crashing halt this past weekend. As commendable as his attempt was to set an all-time record for going wire-to-wire atop the standings and winning a number-one top seed, the raw truth of the matter is that the Tomcat from handicapping Alley failed to take full advantage of all of his scoring opportunities by not submitting all of his exact-score selections for each of the first-seven weeks of this year's competition. His inability to stay fully focused and fully in tune with this year's competition began to show its consequences after week #3, when he held a four-point lead in the standings. In the ensuing four weeks after week #3, his overall lead of the competition incrementally started to fall apart by one point on each passing weekend that followed week #3. To summarize, after week #4 his previous lead slipped from four points to three points over TCU (16 pts vs 13 pts). In week #5, his lead got pared down to two points over DawgPound (18 pts vs 16 pts). After week #6, his lead dwindled down to just one point over Theopholis (19 pts vs 18 pts). And as has already been covered, after this past weekend, his lead totally evaporated and turned into a one-point deficit to Theo (20 pts vs 19 pts). What's really telling about catman's overall inability to stay fully engaged in this year's competition is the disconcerting fact that this past weekend catman became the first handicapper this season to not post exact-score selections for both of the weekly exact-score games. To say the least, the looming and all-important divisional round that's upcoming this weekend will conclude the first significant stage of this year's Bookie Challenge competition, and so the importance of the divisional seeding cannot be underestimated. It's a weekend that has enormous benefits for those who have the intestinal fortitude to snatch one of the four top seeds in the standings, especially for the two participants who snag the overall number-one and number-two top seeds. By doing so, both top seeds will start off their respective divisional races with only two divisional counterparts to deal with within their respective divisions, while the remaining two divisions will consist of four overall participants. The more participants battling for a divisional title the more problems a divisional combatant will have to squelch. But the number-one overall top seed is the one who'll reap the most advantegeous benefits of a divisional seeding, mainly because he'll start the divisional races by being seeded with the league's worst-seeded handicappers, which virtually guarantees him to win his divisional race if only he doesn't squander the huge leads in total points that he'll begin his divisional race with. Then there's this one tidbit about a divisional seeding. One of the overlooked beauties of a divisional seeding is that many handicappers will get to reset their respective seasons and will start off divisional races with smaller deficits than they are presently facing in the point standings, but that's all dependent on the best possible seeds they can win this upcoming weekend. But it's going to take fortuitous outings to pull off a better seeding. As to those handicappers who are presently languishing in the lower tier of the point standings, they're going to be desperate to produce clutch 6-point outings so they don't wind up getting seeded in the top-two seeded divisions, of which if they do get seeded in the top-two seeded divisions, they'll have huge deficits to overcome at the start of this year's divisional races. To sum it all up, this upcoming divisional seeding is not just all about how the present four top seeds in the standings will fare, but more about how each and every participant will fare. |
WEEKLY ODDS AND ENDS: THE HANDICAPPING HODGEPODGE |
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CHALLENGE FIELD: WEEKLY COMBINED STATS AND HAPPENINGS | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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WHO'S HOT AND WHO'S NOT |
WHO'S HOT: THEOPHOLIS Say what you may about Theo's surprising handicapping prowess he has so far exhibited in this year's Bookie Challenge competition, some may see it as a loony anomaly and some may see it as a real turnaround in his mainly checkered 10-year Bookie Challenge career. Regardless of which of the two aforementioned attributes one wants to hang on Theo, whether he's still the same old handicapper or whether he has truly turned that proverbial corner, what can't be overlooked when evaluating Scarface's last few seasons, to include this one, is that the mainly beleaguered handicapper for most of his previous competitions, is now in the process of painstakingly, and methodically, and stealthily morphing himself into a viable contender for Bookie Challenge championships. Sure, he still has his quirky moments in the competition that will elicit laughter and a few shock faces from the rest of the Challenge field. For example, at the start of this year's competition, in week #1, he failed to post his preseason Super Bowl picks, just simply forgot to submit them, and to top it all off for the opening weekend, he posted Detroit as a best-bet selection for this year's NFL season-opener, or the first Thursday night game of the season, and then he turned around and posted two more best bets for the games on that Sunday, of which the two picks on Sunday were disqualified after Theo failed to correct his number of best bets. But despite the early gaffes to start off this season, Scarface has been stringing together one his better starts to a Bookie Challenge season. But most participants in the competition are probably totally oblivious about the better parts of Theo's handicapping track record, so now is a good time to enllighten those participants who are unaware about some of Theo's past handicapping achievements. To start off, there are presently 14 handicappers who qualify for all-time, regular-season records. Out of those 14 handicappers, only eight own winning lifetime best-bet records that consists of winning percentages above .500--and Theo is one of them. Break down those 14 partcipants who qualify for all-time regular-season records to today's active handicappers, and there are only eight active handicappers. Out of those eight active handicappers who qualify for all-time regular-season records, only four of them have lifetime winning best-records that factor out to winning percentages above .500--and Theo is one of them. In fact, in something that will take many aback, out of Theo's NINE previous regular seasons of handicapping the competition, he has produce winning percentages of .500 or above in SEVEN of those respective seasons. Then there is this season. Out of this year's 14 overall handicappers, as has already been pointed in this weekly review, there are presently only THREE handicappers with winning best-bet records on the season--and Theo is one of them. Hell, for that matter Scareface presently owns the second best-bet tally in the league (8-5-0/win% .615). More importantly? Entering this upcoming weekend, of which is the all-importand divisional-seeding round, Theopholis is without question the handicapper who is in the driver's seat. And as the front-runner in the point standings, a front-runner who no less owns the number-one regular-season tiebreaker over his nearest pursuers, most best-bet wins, it's quite obvious that this year's overall number-one seed is for Theopholis to win or lose. In short, he controls his own handicapping fate this upcoming weekend. If anybody out there has yet to notice something about Theo this season, it is that he's not the same handicapper. His handicapping is more restrained. He doesn't willy-nilly take his beloved Steelers every week, no matter the pointspread, as he has consistently done in previous yers gone by. Additionally, he has become 100 times better at taking the right underdogs. But above all, he's found a cool collectiveness in his newfound handicapping regimen. It's hard to describe his present handicapping demeanor with the appropriate words, but if forced to take a stab at it? It would go something like this: Right now, when it comes to handicapping composure, there's not a handicapper in the league who possesses the sangfroid that Theo is currently exuding. In an odd way, Theo's recent and gradual accession to possibly join the elite handicappers in the Bookie Challenge competition, is almost like witnessing a second coming of Driveline. Around two years ago, give or take a year, Theo and his wife moved from Thousand Oaks, California, to Globe, Arizona. Metaphorically speaking, his new city, Globe, is almost fitting, but in a weird sort of way. Ever since Theo has moved to the city of Globe, his handicapping has improved tremendously, so much so that heading into this year's divisional seeding, Theopholis, aka Scarface, has to be feeling as if he were on top of the world. |
WHO'S NOT: TCU Yes, it wouldn't be a stretch to think catman23 should probably be making his first appearance of this season in this segment of the weekly review, especially after he laid his first goose egg of the season this past weekend and lost the overall lead of the competition as a result. But let's be real. The Tomcat from Handicapping Alley is just one point behind Theo for 1st place in the point standings, and more importantly, the same point away from the overall top seed. In other words, catman23 is still very much alive in the running to seize this year's number-one overall seed in this weekend's upcoming divisional-seeding round. The same can't be said of TCU, who is presently and most definitely the real "WHO'S-NOT-HOT-HANDICAPPER" of the league. Over the last two weekends, to include this past weekend, Too Tall Tommy hasn't been yelling "Hi-Yo Silver!" like he was through the first-five weeks of this season. After hitting a 6-point parlay in week #2 for the first time since Challenge year #11, and after compiling a league-leading 8-2-0 best-bet record after week #5, TCU, with 15 overall accrued points on the season at the time was sitting pretty, in third place with the third top seed and just three points behind catman23 for the overall lead of the competition. Additionally, it appeared that he had put last year's competition, by far his worst ever, in his rear view and was making a legit case to be honored at year's end with this season's Comeback Handicapper of the Year award. But that once promising start through the first-five weeks of this season has lost its momentum of late after he goose egged week #6 then followed that scoreless outing by plopping down a golden goose egg this past weekend. The last time Too Tall Tommy laid a golden goose egg was in week #9 of Challenge year #10, but that particular golden goose egg came in the wake of two successive goose egg outings back then, of which the three scoreless outings marked his longest scoreless streak of his Challenge career. All of the sudden, TCU is on the cusp of matching that scoreless run from Challenge year #9 if he goes scoreless this upcoming weekend. Although the timing of his recent scoreless streak couldn't have come at a more worst time for TCU, seeing as the divisional seeding will take place in the upcoming weekend and TCU presently sits in 5th place in the standings and is five points behind Theopholis for the overall lead of the competition, the fact of the matter is that TCU can still scrape out one of the four top seeds if he can get rid of that newfound hitch in his giddy up. Right now, however, he needs to first get his bearings because he's presently lost in a desert, as Neil Young would put it, and on a horse with no name. |
POINT STANDINGS (Thru Week #7) | ||||||||||||||
Total Pts | Participant | Best Bet Record | Win % | Weeks Won | Exact Scores 5pt--------2pt- -------1pt |
Propositional Pts | 3pt Parlays | 6pt Parlays | Perfectas | Goose Eggs | Golden Goose-Eggs | Wins in Parlays | ||
20 pts | Theopholis* | 8-5-0 | .615 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
19 pts | catman23* | 6-8-0 | .429 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
18 pts | DIRTYBIRDS* | 5-6-1 | .455 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
17 pts | DawgPound | 5-9-0 | .359 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
15 pts | TCU* | 8-6-0 | .571 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
13 pts | dbucc* | 5-6-1 | .455 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
12 pts | jcvike28* | 5-9-0 | .357 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
11 pts | 7mick7* | 5-8-1 | .385 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
10 pts | Blitzkrieg | 9-4-1 | .692 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
10 pts | HOF City Kid* | 3-10-1 | .231 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
8 pts | moemonie* | 5-9-0 | .357 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
7 pts | Vikings17* | 6-7-1 | .462 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
5 pts | Driveline* | 5-9-0 | .357 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
5 pts | B.Nihilist* | 4-9-1 | .308 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
Statistics in BOLD denotes participant leads league in statistical category. | ||||||||||||||
*Asterisk next to participant's name denotes participant's Latinum has been received. Total projected jackpot: $560 (Current jackpot: $520). Projected split of jackpot: 1st place $420 (BC Champion); 2nd place $100 (Runner up to BC Champion), 3rd place $40 (Regular Season Champion) |
CONSENSUS PICK (Week #7) | |
CONSENSUS: Cleveland (-3)-LOST | WK#7: 0-1-0 Win% .000 (YTD Thru Wk #7: 3-6-0 Win% .333) |
INDIVIDUAL PICKS (Week #7) (Note: Participants are listed in order in which they posted their picks. *Asterisk in WIP column denotes a 3-pt parlay attempt) |
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Participant | Best Bets | Parlay | Exact Scores | Propositional Picks | Results >>>>> | Total Pts | W-L-T | Week Won | Exact-Scores 5pt-- --2pt----1pt |
Propositional Pts | 3pt parlay | 6pt parlay | Perfecta | Goose Egg | Golden Goose-Egg | Wins in Parlay | ||
TCU | Buff-8½-L SF-7-L |
TB-3-L LAC/KC-O48-L Mia/Phi-O52-L |
Jax 28-10 SF 28-24 |
N/A | >>>>> | 0 pts | 0-2-0 | GGE | 0/3 | |||||||||
Driveline | GB-1½-L TB-2½-L |
Balt-3-W Sea-7-W Det/Blt-U43-L |
Jax 24-13 SF 24-17 |
N/A | >>>>> | 0 pts | 0-2-0 | GE | 2/3 | |||||||||
Vikings17 | NO-1½-L Jax/NO-O40½-W |
TB-3-L SF-7-L GB/Den-O45-L |
NO 23-20 SF 34-24 |
N/A | >>>>> | 1 pts | 1-1-0 | 0/3 | ||||||||||
jcvike28 | Jax+1½-W Minn+7-W |
TB-3-L Cle-3-L Mia+3-L |
Jax 20-17 SF 24-20 |
N/A | >>>>> | 2 pts | 2-0-0 | 0/3 | ||||||||||
dbucc | Jax+1½-W Buff-8½-L |
Cle-3-L Mia+3-L SF-7-L |
Jax 24-20 SF 30-17 |
N/A | >>>>> | 1 pts | 1-1-0 | 0/3 | ||||||||||
B.Nihilist | Det+3-L KC-5½-W |
Cle-3-L LAR-3-L Mia+3-L |
Jax 23-17 SF 27-24 |
N/A | >>>>> | 1 pts | 1-1-0 | 0/3 | ||||||||||
DawgPound | Jax/NO-U40½-L Cle-3-L |
TB-3-L Sea-7-W Wash-3-L |
Jax 23-20 SF 23-17 |
N/A | >>>>> | 0 pts | 0-2-0 | GE | 1/3 | |||||||||
Theopholis | Balt-3-W Sea-7½-W |
Den+2-W TB-3-L Ind+3-W |
NO 22-20 SF 26-20 |
N/A | >>>>> | 2 pts | 2-0-0 | 2/3 | ||||||||||
Blitzkrieg | Jax+1½-W Mia+2½-L |
Cle-3-L LAR-3-L Wash-3-L |
Jax 23-17 SF 27-23 |
N/A | >>>>> | 1 pts | 1-1-0 | 0/3 | ||||||||||
7mick7 | Jax/NO-U40½-L TB-2½-L |
Balt-3-W KC-6-W Mia/Phi-O52-L |
NO 20-17 SF 24-17 |
N/A | >>>>> | 0 pts | 0-2-0 | GE | 2/3 | |||||||||
catman23 | TB-2½-L LV-3-L |
Cle-3-L Den+2-W Buff-9-L |
xs xs |
N/A | >>>>> | 0 pts | 0-2-0 | GE | 1/3 | |||||||||
moemonie | Phil-2½-W Cle-3-L |
LAR-3-L Sea-7-W Was/NYG-U38-W |
xs SF 27-17 |
N/A | >>>>> | 1 pts | 1-1-0 | 2/3 | ||||||||||
DIRTYBIRDS | Buff-8½-L Was/NYG-U38-W |
Cle-3-L LV-3-L Det+3-L |
xs SF 28-10 |
N/A | >>>>> | 1 pts | 1-1-0 | 0/3 | ||||||||||
HOF City Kid | Cle-3-L SF-7-L |
Cle-3-L SF-7-L Balt-3-W |
xs SF 27-13 |
N/A | >>>>> | 0 pts | 0-2-0 | GE | 1/3* |
FINALS | JAX 31 NO 24 |
ATL 16 TB 13 |
CHI 30 LV 12 |
CLE 39 IND 38 |
BALT 38 DET 6 |
NE 29 BUFF 25 |
NYG 14 WASH 7 |
SEA 20 ARI 10 |
PITTS 24 LAR 17 |
KC 31 LAC 17 |
DEN 19 GB 17 |
PHIL 31 MIA 17 |
MINN 22 SF 17 |
PREVIOUS REVIEWS | Preseason Special | Wk #1 | Wk #2 | Wk #3 | Wk #4 | Wk #5 | Wk #6 |